Archive Articles

    Gen AI: Sharper Edge of Predictions in Equity Finance

    Equity finance in the United States operates within a relatively closed market environment, governed by stable regulations with known participants, settlement and collateral profiles. These conditions produce fewer surprises than more open financial systems that depend on multi-currency capital flows or complex macroeconomic linkages.

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    “Where is the Target’s Trajectory Now?”

    Accurately identifying shifts in trend forecasts is as important for financial executives as for fighter pilots. Traditional regression models may offer simplicity and ease of interpretation but struggle with the complexities of modern financial markets. How can changes in the trendlines for risk and return be spotted quickly enough to take action? Livelihoods often hang in the balance when decision-makers weigh choices.

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    Fed Official Outlines Potential Changes to Basel III Endgame Proposal

    On September 10, 2024, Michael S. Barr, the Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision, delivered a speech at the Brookings Institution outlining potential changes to the Basel III Endgame and G-SIB Surcharge proposals, originally released in July 2023. Barr characterized these changes, developed collaboratively by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), as both “broad and material”.

    While Barr did not specify an exact release date for the reproposal, he indicated that it would be reviewed in an open board meeting, followed by a 60-day comment period. Implementation is anticipated one year after the final rule’s release.

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    Banking Leaders set to Control ‘Shadow Exposures’

    Shadow banking is history, say banking leaders, a thing of the past. New compliance and risk management systems based on the Securities Finance Transaction Regulation (SFTR) and the industry’s evolving Common Domain Model (CDM) will enable financial service providers to regulate their clients’ exposure to counterparties with far more specificity than ever before possible. Originally accepted as a regulatory imposition, bankers are now viewing the SFTR reports of their loan principals as a platform to help state pension funds and others meet their ESG and tax compliance goals with unprecedented precision — along with proof of funding.

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    Predictive AI in Securities Finance: Step One

    On April 2nd, 2026, an effusion of data from a daily trove of U.S. regulatory filings will create resources to drive many new use cases for artificial intelligence in capital markets. A clear opportunity exists in securities finance, where practitioners have repeatedly stated that major IT investments will be needed to comply with the many new regulatory mandates. “Black box” AI platforms may seem a ready solution but can also create nightmares for client reviews and lawsuits.

    In our opinion, public data can clarify the rational limits of influence for predictive artificial intelligence. The best courtroom-ready models will display an audit trail based on the replication of critical decision parameters and vectors from past markets. Vendor data in securities finance may be more timely and deeper than the public releases but, for judicial purposes, the public data will provide foundational evidence for the “bounded rationality” of decision-makers, as defined by the late Herbert Simon, Nobel Laureate and the father of Artificial Intelligence.

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    Beyond Benchmarking: The Race to Predictive Analytics in Securities Finance

    When, on October 13, 2023, the Securities and Exchange Commission released its long-awaited final 10c-1 rule on reporting and public disclosure of securities loans (explained here), the most important passage, at least to the commercial data vendors who support the securities finance community, stated that, “the final rule could render existing securities lending data services less valuable, potentially leading to less revenue for the firms currently compiling and distributing these data for a fee.”[1] But is that true? Are bonuses and careers really at risk?? As shown in the table below, there is hope for vendors because the public data release will either omit or delay several data elements that are crucial to many important vendor applications today.

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    SEC Adopts Long Awaited Securities Lending Disclosure Rule

    Persuasive Public Comment Helps Mold the Final Rule The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has adopted a new rule, rule 10c-1, to increase transparency in the securities lending market. The rule requires certain persons to report information about securities loans to a registered national securities association (RNSA). The RNSA will then make certain information publicly […]

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    Untold Stories of Market Manipulation: Archegos Capital

    This blog tells the untold story of how securities lenders in March 2021 became more than simply a source of liquidity to markets. Lenders organized their de facto market posse when their securities lending agents and custodians set in motion the chain of contractions that brought down Archegos’ massive fraud. It was their automated ceiling on total credit extension – share inventory buffers — that led, in a very short time, to traders’ discovery, surveillance, and opposition to the manipulation.

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    Archegos Litigation Heats Up

    In March 2021, Archegos Capital Management, a family office run by Bill Hwang, collapsed in a spectacular fashion, leaving its counterparties with over $10 billion in losses. The collapse of Archegos was one of the largest hedge fund failures in history, and it has since been the subject of intense scrutiny by regulators and law enforcement.

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    Modernizing Beneficial Ownership Reporting

    In early 2022, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed several significant changes to Regulations 13D and 13G, which require certain persons to disclose their beneficial ownership of equity securities. These changes seek to improve the transparency and timeliness of beneficial ownership reporting and to make it easier for investors to access and understand this information.

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    The SEC Unveils its Agenda for 2023

    In its recently updated regulatory flexibility agenda, the Securities and Exchange Commission has announced its regulatory priorities for 2023. A mix of old and new business, the Commission’s 2023 plans include finalizing 29 existing proposals and placing 23 new proposals up for consideration. In a January 4, 2023 press release announcing the updated agenda, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated that the agency’s agenda “reflects the need to modernize our ruleset, moving deliberately to update our rules in light of ever-changing technologies and business models in the securities markets.” Regulatory flexibility agendas are aspirational, and the SEC’s rulemaking agenda could change throughout the year.

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    SEC Beefs Up Proxy Voting Disclosure

    On November 2, 2022, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finalized the first of its market data rule proposals. The amendments to form N-PX bring greater detail, consistency, and usability to the proxy voting information reported by mutual funds. These changes came in response to investors, who have said for nearly twenty years that they would benefit from more readily usable information and greater details.

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    Common Domain Model Paves the Way to the Future

    The Common Domain Model (CDM), the International Securities Lending Association’s (ISLA) ambitious securities lending standardization project, is a step closer to reality. And industry leaders already see opportunities for application. In a report jointly produced with Linklaters, ISLA outlined the project’s progress since its launch in 2021 and described how the CDM lays the foundation for distributed ledger (DLT)-based smart contracts to remake the securities lending landscape.

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    Serious Doubts About the SEC’s Short Sale Proposals

    In February of 2022, the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed new disclosures to provide more transparency into institutional investors’ short-selling activity. According to Chairman Gensler, collecting more granular data from large short sellers “would help us to better oversee the markets and understand the role short selling may play in market events.” Despite these lofty goals, industry commenters are raising serious questions about whether some elements of the proposed new disclosure regime are structurally and technologically feasible.

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